A strong performance on the daily chart for the ftse 100 index which saw the market close at 5366, a gain of 140 points on the day and giving us a wide spread up candle as a result. This strong bullish signal was in response to yesterday’s hammer candle which hinted at just such a move owing to the depth of wick to the underside of the hammer candle. In addition this positive signal was further confirmed by the 9 day moving average which provided strong support to the test lower yesterday and gave further evidence of a prospective rally which has duly arrived today. The issue now is whether the ftse 100 can maintain this impressive momentum and break back above the solid resistance level which is now in place at 5410. Any clearance here will then provide a solid platform of support which could ee the ftse100 extend its gains up to re-test the underside of an area of price congestion at the 5665 which extends all the way through to 5783 and a clearance here would then open the way to another run at the 6000 price handle in the longer term. Tomorrow’s price action is therefore critical and for ftse betting the odds are that we could see 5410 breached in the next few days. However, with trading volumes still remaining relatively light we need to be patient and wait for the break above 5410.
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Archive for FTSE spread betting
FTSE 100 Chart 29 June 2010
Ftse betting this week is very much to the downside as the index crashes through the psychological 5000 level and begins to test support immediately belowas it approaches a significant level at 4898.49. This price point signals the low of May which prompted a recovery in the short term for the index to break back above 5200 once again. However, in the last few days we have seen bearish sentiment return once again with trading today so far epitomised with a wide spread down candle coupled with thin trading volumes. Should the 4898 price handle be breached either today, or later in the week then expect to see the ftse 100 break lower as a result. This bearish sentiment is further confirmed by the 9 day moving average which has now crossed below both the 14 and 40 day moving averages with all three now adding further pressure to the downside. As a result any ftse bet should be placed to take advantage of the current bearish momentum.
Banking problems prompt sell off in equities
FTSE 100 weekly candle chart for the UK Index
The ftse 100 finished the week higher last week, breaking marginally above the 20 day moving average once again, as the index struggles to regain the highs of April once again. The psychological 5000 level remains the key price point for the index, which to date has held firm during the recent pull back from the highs of 5,833. From a technical perspective last week’s candle ended as a narrow spread up bar, which held above the 20 day moving average, giving us a bull signal, that further confirms the hammer candle of the previous week. For the upwards momentum to continue this week we need to see a break and hold above the 50 day moving average which would then indicate that the appetite for risk has returned once again, and provided we see this in due course, then the ftse 100 should move above the 5,800 price level once again, with our longer term target of 6,000 and above back in focus once again. For ftse betting this week, look for small long positions on an intra day basis, either using a spread betting strategy with a hedged position on the US dow 30, or alternatively using binary options.
FTSE 100 candle chart for 26th May 2010
Having fallen below the psychological 5,000 price level, the FTSE 100 index has bounced back in trading today, continuing the bullish reversal of yesterday, which saw this threshold breached, despite the sharp sell off in the DOW towards the end of the US trading session. However from a technical perspective the short term outlook remains bearish as we hold below all three short term moving averages, and with deep resistance now waiting above, any sustained rally will require some sustained momentum in order to recover the highs of 5,800 and beyond. In the short term therefore we can expect to see further market volatility as the European and Korean issues dominate, but should we breach the 5,450 level in due course, then this will signal a return to the bullish trend of the last few months, and the possibility of a run towards 5,800 once again.
An analysis of the trading volumes also confirms this view, with current bearish volumes now approximately 50% of those of last week, suggesting that bearish sentiment is reversing as selling pressure declines, all adding to the view that the market sentiment is now turning. Indeed the VIX would also support this idea, as we approach market highs for the fear index, and as a contrarian indicator are now giving us strong buying signals as a result. So in summary, the FTSE 100 looks set to regain much of the lost ground of the last few weeks and we should expect to see FTSE betting markets biased to long positions as a result.
FTSE weekly chart - Week ending 14th May 2010
Following the last two weeks of significant falls for the ftse betting index as markets and investors reacted with panic to the continuing uncertainty in Europe, this week’s modest recovery came as a relief to many who had been betting on further falls in equities as a result. There was further turmoil in the markets this week, caused partly by the election results in Germany, which saw Chancellor Merkel lose her coalition majority as a result, coupled with unhelpful comments later in the week from French President Sarkozy who suggested that the euro was finished as a currency. Despite last week’s meeting in Europe over the weekend, the markets are still nervous, as the threat of contagion still exists, although both the Portuguese and Spanish now seem to be taking firm action to control their sovereign debt problems, unlike the Greeks who are still in denial, and blaming everyone else but themselves. It has been suggested today that President Sarkozy even threatened to withdraw France from the euro if Germany failed to convince the member states to agree to a joint bailout. All this has unsettled the markets with the resultant sharp reversal in the ftse 100 late in the week, with gold the major beneficiary, as investors flee for the precious metal and a safe haven, as risk appetite falls as a result.
From a technical perspective the short term outlook remains mildly bearish, with last week closing marginally higher but with a deep wick to the upper body, and failing to hold above the 26 day moving average which now sits above the closing price of 5264 on Friday evening. Having breached both the 9 and 26 day moving averages, and with a bearish tone now evident, the key support level remains at the 5,030 level, and should this be penetrated, then we can expect to see the downwards momentum continue as a result. To the upside only a break and hold above 5525 will indicate a return of the bullish momentum of the last few months. With the Dow Jones falling in the evening session, expect the ftse 100 to open gapped down on Monday morning and watch for a test of the psychological price level during next weeks ftse betting.
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